I'd like to offer some pointers.
Is there any research that goes along these lines and perhaps formalizes this intuition?
Parametricity by analysis of the shape of (simply-typed) normal forms preceded by a normalisation argument was proposed by Girard, Scedrov, and Scott [1]. This connects parametricity, cut-elimination in logic, and a proof technique for coherence in category theory. Here, parametricity is understood as a property of dinaturality, originally proposed for system F in [2].
Is this idea correct and strong enough to prove (by case analysis on the normal forms of the terms) 'free theorems' or more general parametricity results?
In [1], it is noted that this includes the so-called "free theorems" as a special case. But the argument does not extend to all of system F, and dinaturality fails to capture relational parametricity (see e.g. [3]). On the other hand, a work by Paolo Pistone shows that one indeed obtains with a “syntactic” notion of dinaturality a characterisation of parametricity for a class of types a bit larger than the simplepositive types (system F types whose quantifiers are in positive positions), including your examplesexample: “in the case of positive types, realizability, invariance with respect to logical relations, dinaturality and typability are equivalent properties for closed normal λ-terms” [4, §7.1].
So there is indeed an elementary technique based on looking at shapes of normal forms, which provides a syntactic characterisation of some parametricity results including the "free theorems", that also hints at a connection with categorical coherence.
[1]: Girard, J.-Y.; Scedrov, A. & Scott, P. J. Normal Forms and Cut-Free Proofs as Natural Transformations. Logic From Computer Science, Mathematical Science Research Institute Publications 21, Springer-Verlag, 1992, 217-241. http://citeseer.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.41.811
[2]: Bainbridge, E. S.; Freyd, P. J.; Scedrov, A. & Scott, P. J. Functorial polymorphism. Theoretical computer science, Elsevier, 1990, 70, 35-64. https://core.ac.uk/display/82270459
[3]: De Lataillade, J. Dinatural Terms in System F. Logic in Computer Science, 24th Annual IEEE Symposium, 267-276, 2009. https://www.irif.fr/~delatail/dinat.pdf
[4]: Pistone, P. On completeness and parametricity in the realizability semantics of System F. Logical Methods in Computer Science, October 29, 2019, Volume 15, Issue 4. https://doi.org/10.23638/LMCS-15(4:6)2019