Say we have a random variable $X$ that contains $k$ bits of information, and a message $M = f(X)$ ($M$ is deterministic given $X$) that is $l$ bits long, where $l<k$. This implies $H(X) = k$ and $H(M) \le l$. Hence, we know on average $M$ leaks at most $l$ bits of information about $X$:
$H(X \mid M) = H(X) - I(X;M) \geq H(X) - H(M) \geq k - l$.
Now, can we get an upper bound to the probability (over $X$) that $M$ leaks $l + t$ bits of information about $X$, or $\Pr_{M}[H(X) - H(X \mid M = m) \geq l + t]$?
Obviously, we can use Markov inequality to bound the probability down to $\epsilon$ when $t = (1/\epsilon - 1)l$. But can we get something better, or even something as good as $2^{-t}$?
This sounds like something really basic when you want to talk about deterministic protocol on random input, but I cannot find material that talks about this... Many thanks in advance.