I'd like to add to Mark Reitblatt's comment and Amir Shpilka's answer. First, one of the conjectures put forward by Cohn, Kleinberg, Szegedy, and Umans is not group-theoretic but is purely combinatorial (Conj. 3.4 in their FOCS '05 paper). This conjecture says that the "strong USP capacity is $\frac{3}{2^{2/3}}$." Coppersmith and Winograd, in exhibiting their currently-best algorithm for matrix multiplication, showed that the USP capacity is this same number $\frac{3}{2^{2/3}}$ (although they did not phrase it quite this way). Although there is a difference between strong USPs and USPs, this is some evidence that their conjecture is at least plausible.
(For their other Conjecture 4.7, which is group-theoretic, I do not know of any similar evidence of plausibility, beyond just intuition.)
Second, I agree with Amir Shpilka that the string of past algorithms has a somewhat ad-hoc feel. However, one of the nice things about the group-theoretic approach is that almost all (not quite all) of the previous algorithms can be phrased in this approach. Although the various group-theoretic constructions in [CKSU] may seem a little ad-hoc on the outside, within the context of the group-theoretic framework they appear significantly more natural and less ad-hoc (at least to me) than many of the previous algorithms.