A partial answer: The number of productions needed by a (not necessarily deterministic) context-free grammar generating $L\cap \Sigma^{\le N}$ in the worst case is $\Theta(N^2)$, as given in Theorem 4 of
W. Bucher, H.A. Maurer, K. Culik, D. Wotschke, Concise description of finite languages, Theoretical Computer Science 14(3), 1981, pp. 227-246.
For convenience, we reproduce the construction and the outline of the lower bound. Given a context-free grammar $G=(V,\Sigma, P, S)$ in Chomsky normal form, for every variable $A\in V$, we introduce variables $A^{(1)}, \ldots A^{(N)}$ and productions
- $A^{(i)}\to B^{(i-k)}C^{(k)}$, for $i=2$ to $n$ and $k=1$ to $i-1$ and all productions of type $A\to BC$,
- $S^{(i)}\to S^{(i-1)}$, for $i=2$ to $n$
- $A^{(1)}\to a$ for all productions of type $A\to a$ or $S \to \varepsilon$.
For correctness proof, see the proof in the paper.
I assume that if the original context-free grammar is deterministic, then so is the above constructed grammar (I haven't checked carefully though, for example the conversion to Chomsky normal form).
For the lower bound, they prove that the language $U_n = \{\,a^k b^k ca^\ell b^\ell d a^mb^m \mid 0 \le k+\ell+m \le n \,\}$ requires $\Omega(n^2)$ context-free productions. As noted in the comments, the language $U := \bigcup_n U_n$ is a deterministic context-free language, so this gives a quadratic lower bound for the problem asked by the OP.
More precisely, they prove that the language $\widehat{U}_n = U_n \cap \Sigma^n$ is incompressible by context-free grammars, in the sense that any context-free grammar (not necessarily in any normal form) generating this finite set has at least as many context-free productions as there are words in the language (Theorem 1).
Also, they show that for a finite language $L$ whose words are of length at most $n$, the required number of context-free productions for generating $L \cap \Sigma^n$ is a lower bound for the required number of context-free productions for generating $L$ (Lemma 2.2).