Interesting question, lets look at some specific cases.
Let there be $k$ keys, $n_{on}$ bits on, $n_{total}$ bits in total and $m$ elements inserted. We'll first try to find a function $P(k, n_{on}, n_{total}, m)$ which is the probability of a state occurring.
If $km \lt n_{on}$, then $P(k, n_{on}, n_{total}, m)$ must be $0$, ie it's an impossibility.
If $n_{on} = 1$, then we are looking for the probability that $km$ hashes fall in the same bucket, the first one can mark where the others should go. So we want to find the probability that $km - 1$ hashes fall in a specific bucket.
$P(k, 1, n_{total}, m) = (1/n_{total})^{(km-1)}$
That's the really simple cases over. If $n_{on} = 2$ then we want to find the probability that $km$ hashes land in $2$ distinct buckets and at least $1$ falls in each. There are $n_{total}(n_{total} - 1)$ pairs of buckets and the probability that the hashes land in any specific $2$ is $(2/n_{total})^{km}$ so the probability that the hashes fall in up to $2$ buckets is:
$n_{total}(n_{total} - 1)(2/n_{total})^{km}$
We already know the probability that they'll fall in $1$ bucket so let's subtract that to give the probability that they'll fall in exactly $2$.
$P(k, 2, n_{total}, m) = n_{total}(n_{total} - 1)(2/n_{total})^{km} - (1/n_{total})^{(km-1)}$
I think we can generalize this now.
$P(k, n_{on}, n_{total}, m) = {n_{total} \choose n_{on}}(n_{on}/n_{total})^{km} - \sum_{i=1}^{i<n_{on}} P(k, i, n_{total}, m)$
I'm not exactly sure how to make this formula more amenable to computation. Naively implemented, it would result in exponential time execution time, though it's trivial, via memoization, to achieve linear time. It's then just a case of finding the most likely $m$. My instinct says that there will be a single peak so it may be possible to find it very quickly, but naively, you can definitely find the most probably m in $O(n^2)$.